Nintendo’s Harrison: Console lifecycles? Peshaw!
Tuesday, May 29th, 2007 at 9:53am by Jack
A smidgen of a tidbit of a morsel from Game|Life’s interview with Nintendo of America’s George Harrison reveals that the Wii could be disrupting more than just software libraries. The 5-year life cycle, commonly accepted by many in the industry as standard across all consoles from all time, could be next.
WN: In five years, where do you see the Wii? In the US.
GH: Certainly I think that as we get through this entire lifecycle, and already people are starting to guess, “who’s going to win the lifecycle,” two things are going to happen. First of all, I’m not sure it’s going to be a typical lifecycle. In the past, we’ve always had five- to six-year lifecycles which were sort of forced by someone jumping ahead and using a new piece of technology. And we’re finding out now that the appeal of faster processors and better graphics is really sort of reaching a diminishing point. There’s a price point and there’s the quality that’s holding the PlayStation 3 back. They’re selling so many PlayStation 2s because people are saying, “You know what? The graphics are pretty good, the price is good, and the library is good.” So we have a great expectation that this lifecycle’s actually going to last more than five years.
Very true. Just because I gave away my PS2 to my little sister last month so she could shred Guitar Hero 2 doesn’t mean that system is going away anytime soon. In fact, the PS2 is now working its way into a 10-year lifecycle. Insanity! This still presents an interesting problem however: can the Wii’s hardware keep up with everyone else for more than three-five years? This remains to be seen, but I’m optimistic due to the fact that the system’s potential has only had its white veneer scratched ever so slightly.
May 29th, 2007 at 10:53 am
I agree, 7-8 year lifecycles are better IMO but the fact that the wii is kinda “weak” on “future proof” stuff scares me, I really don’t know if I’ll be able to plug my wii into my next TV? what if everything is HDMI only etc..? And wii graphics look kinda crap already when compared to my 360.. Anyways I’ll enjoy it now and worry later…
May 29th, 2007 at 11:52 am
If mass software drives Wii sales like how it doing for PS2 then yes I can see Wii life cycle last for over or about 6yrs. From a technological stand point Wii cycle by design is for just 4-5yrs. AI, Physics and over complex game designs will reach a breaking point on the Wii much sooner than that of PS3 or 360. This is where I feel that Wii life cycle will be within 5yrs.
Creative minds need a platform to express themselves and great gameplay needs advance AI and Physics for this to happen. CPU and GPU comes into play. I can’t see the Wii lasting over 5yrs.
May 29th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Actually the previous lifecycle was short because Xbox jumped the gun an released the Xbox 360 just 4 years after the original box.
I guest 5 to 6 years would be a normal lifecycle, with the exception of PS3, which really could stand the test of time better because in maybe 2 or 3 years everybody will go HDTV and then Wii will start to really look old (maybe Nintendo will bring a Wii “lite” with HD upscaled 720p-output, who knows…).
PS2 has a great lifecycle and still is going strong, a “problem” for Sony, which they didn’t count in, I guess.
May 29th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
The real problem with the possibility of a longer lifecycle for Wii is that, come 5 years, I’m going to be pining for something more. I look foward to Nintendo’s innovation and growth, and to have to wait more than 5-6 years to see that would be a shame.
Plus, in that amount of time, who’s to say Microsoft or Sony are going to be out of the loop (because I really dont think they will)? Theyr’e going to jump ahead of Wii, and Wii is going to be left behind and neglected by a market that strives for the prettiest picture (especially when the Wii is not going to look so hot when Microsoft and Sony will probably have gamers playing photo-realistic worlds instead of the pretty polygons they offer now).
So, yeah, I hope Nintendo does not try to extend the lifecycle too long.
May 29th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
I take your point BUT -
The PSP has games with graphics that look stunning as compared to the DS (which look OK to good). Yet, the DS is trouncing it in sales. Could not the same happen with Wii (as indeed is happening with PS2)? Bear in mind also that the Wii is no slouch when it comes to graphics - just look at the new Harry Potter game for Wii.
When all is said and done, I would fully expect to see fairly deep games on Wii with stunning graphics.
Lastly, don’t forget the only thing stopping Wii from producing 1024 x 576 or even 1280 x 720 (720p) resolution is Wii’s lack of RAM - at only 88MB. Nevertheless, it could be done and I’ve no doubt if the Wii is successful some “jammy” developer wii surely have a go during the latter years of the Wii’s life!
May 29th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
I think Harrison summed it best when he said “You know what? The graphics are pretty good, the price is good, and the library is good.” Well, the sentence in that phrase is the library is good! The only reason PS2 is going for a 10-year life cycle is that game developers decided to do their best towards the end of this cycle. Actually, developers put out their best work at the end of a console’s life cycle, when they know the hardware better.
The problems I see for a more than 4-year life cycle for Wii are:
1) The PS2, with comparable hardware, is already near the end of its life cycle;
2) Even though consumers might not spend the extra cash for “the better graphics”, there will be a HUGE gap between the second-generation PS3 game graphics and the Wii game graphics that even the “casual gamer” won’t be able to ignore;
3) Online gameplay and downloadable content might play a HUGE role in the popularity of a console in one year or two, an area that Nintendo is just getting started on and MicroSoft is already an expert at.
And, MIS, the reason DS is eating the PSP’s cake on portable gaming, again, is the library… and the graphics have very little to do with the consumers’ preference when it comes to portable gaming. Not the same with living-room gaming (or portable vs. living-room movie watching, for that matter!)
May 29th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Well, if the Wii’s cycle is longer than your average, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nintendo came out with some kind of “4th Pillar” home console, or a new iteration of the Wii. I’m sure a newer, more powerful Wii in a few years won’t be too terribly expensive. It could even be sold sans remotes.
Or another possibility would be updated remotes along with it. Not enough to call it a Wii2, but enough to reinvigorate interest in an againg product. All products have life cycles (it’s more marketing that what the people want), and just as a car receives a “refresh” midway through the life cycle, the Wii could receive one. All consoles could conceivably last much longer than their current span, especially given the slower pace of hardware development. Software and firmware upgrades could be more prevalent to make up the differences in a longer console cycle.
May 29th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
On Kotaku.com I think i read an aritcle there, with sony stating that they are holding onto the ps3 for another ten years…
I could see nintendo just upgrading the wii in three-five years, like they did with the GBA, GBASP, and GBAmicro…Nintendo DS, Nintendo DSlite….
Although they are both portables, and they never touched base on the Gamecube for the fact that I believe that they were focusing on their portable line than the stationary line.
So I could see Nintendo staying with the wii for alot longer, just making it newer.
Xbox has already done it with the Elite, and it has already been about 18 months since release.
May 30th, 2007 at 12:20 am
Nah.
I think 5 years is the most any new consol will last, what with PC gaming getting better and better each year.
Also, the Wii has only one real weakness… Visuals.
In 5 years the Weak visuals will be much more noticable, and a Wii-Next will be needed.
So no to the long life span. Yeas to about 5 years, please and thanks.