PROLOGUE: If you think everyone should share your view of reality, or if you become enraged when encountering a difference of opinion, I advise you to skip this post. In other words, hang on, Nintendo fans. This is gonna hurt:
Nintendo is expected to pull a Netflix and and pile on even more crap numbers this Thursday, adding to the already crappy quarterlies they’ve posted over the last year.
In the comment thread of the above article, one observer reacted as follows: “3DS will $99 soon and likely discontinued.”
I wouldn’t go quite that far. But I could see 3DS being discontinued prematurely. Whether that’s “soon” or not remains to be seen. But there’s no other way to put it: This thing is a sinking ship. Not Titanic fast or Virtual Boy fast. But fast enough to search the deck for life boats.
The reason: Mainstream on-the-go gamers are more interested in iOS games now than dedicated portable consoles like the 3DS. The former’s games are 1/40 the price of most 3DS games (if not free). And 78% of people think stereoscopic 3D games are worthless.
As a result, game developers are jumping ship from 3DS to iOS. Even though they originally promised lots of 3DS support, it ain’t happening.
Can you blame them? Since the 3DS’s unprecedented 32% price drop in August, the system reportedly has sold only a quarter million additional units to bring life to date sales of 3DS to a discouraging 4.32 million worldwide.
Meanwhile, Apple has sold a mind-blowing 189 million iOS devices (iPhones + iPads) and still has lightening in a bottle. Yes, DS cracked 150 million, the most successful dedicated game system ever. But those stopped selling two years ago. And 3DS games can’t be played on those 150 million DSs like most iPhone games can be played on older iPhones.
As is, the 3DS is trending as the worst selling Nintendo portable ever. No where near the hundreds of millions the Game Boy, Game Boy Advance, and Nintendo DS sold. Simply put, 3DS sales are way off target from where Nintendo portables usually are globally by month seven.
As I predicted last month, it’s highly unlikely the 3DS will reach even 5 or 6 million global units by year’s end’a far cry from the 16 million Nintendo was hoping to move by Dec 31. Admittedly, 3DS is performing better than the Virtual Boy, the only one of nine major Nintendo platforms (10 if you include Game Boy Color) to have failed.
That doesn’t instill a lot of confidence, though. Especially since 3DS simply doesn’t have the kind of traction that other usually successful Nintendo systems have had’including the second to worst-selling but still successful N64. Of the eight profitable Nintendo systems, including N64, all have been solid to phenomenal successes. 3DS, while not a complete bust’at least not yet’has been neither.
Assuming the 3DS is incapable of delivering must-have, all original games (read: 3D has to mean something to games), it will likely be game over for the system. Would that force Nintendo to pull a Sega or Atari? Ditch hardware and release their games on other viable platforms, like iOS?
As Eugene wisely said last month, “not likely.” As Nintendo has shown in the past, so long as one of their two gaming fronts stays in the black, be it portable or home console, they can survive, even thrive.
The problem is for the first time in Nintendo’s history, its handheld front is tanking. And a lot of people are skeptical about the complex Wii U, arriving in homes next year.
No, Nintendo is not in its darkest hour (even though their net income is near a 30 year low). That will only happen if the Wii U, like its portable companion the 3DS, fails to excite consumers.
Still, the darkest hour could be around the corner. Particularly if Nintendo continues to deny Apple as a competitor.
Coincidentally, that’s how both Microsoft and Sony previously viewed Nintendo, when the latter was putting the hurt on them.
To the person above:
I love how you say there's no competitors. Oh there definitely were, they just got trampled underfoot and failed miserably. The TurboGrafx and Neo Geo anyone? Atari Jaguar? Wonder Swan? MSX?
There have been tons of companies trying to take down Nintendo and co, it's just most tend to crash and burn spectacularly. Heck, most new companies trying to release consoles now tend to crash and burn just as badly.
And they're not losing marketshare to the 360 or PS3, those are doing just as poorly in these times as Nintendo.
But never the less, I doubt Nintendo is going to discontinue any consoles.
I think Nintendo should lower the price of the 3ds to $99 if Nintendo doesn't want to go broke and if they want to sell more 3ds's. And they should really do remakes of every classic Nintendo 64 game so they can make even more money.
Nintendo is doing so bad selling their products, because the economy is bad now these days.
@Brayan: As consumers we'd want the 3DS to be free but that would make Nintendo go bankrupt in two years. My iPhone 4 is tied to a contract and is more expensive than a 3DS.
Quote: "Having “an intelligent passion for all things Nintendo†means acknowledging when Nintendo fails and calling them on it." /Quote
Calling them on it is one thing, bashing them over the head with it repeatedly like a Whack-A-Mole game is something else entirely.
@Joel: Agree. Nintendo posted their first loss in 30 years and everyone is going "Nintendo is going 3rd. Doomed!". Care to check up on the MS and Sony finances from the videogames division for the last 4 years?
You fans are ridiculous. You think Sony or Microsoft fanboys are bad for putting you down? You're all just as bad as they are.
Nintendo is facing an unprecedented loss in 30 years. They haven't had such loss since Radar Scope, which was their first Arcade game, they couldn't even give them away if they wanted to.
While I really don't care about iOS, or the games on there. But the fact of the matter is that there is CONVENIENCE with them. We're all somewhat lazy, so anything that is easier, we go with it. A device that let's you get online, play games, watch videos, check e-mail, and is a phone. How can someone NOT go for that?
Yes, Nintendo is not in that business of a "device that does everything", we get that. But Nintendo has dropped the ball immensely with the 3DS. They thought they could coast on the success of the DS and their legacy. If you look through Nintendo's history, they have had a near 20+ year obsession with 3D. And from the looks of it, they still can't sell it to the masses. If consumers were so interested in 3D, or gamers, we would see a huge increase in 3D televisions or ticket sales for 3D films. Neither of those industries have been able to keep a year over year increase in sales.
Nintendo wanted to sell their obsession of 3D. They failed immensely in educating the consumer in the product's safety. They failed to demonstrate it's abilities (look at the difference in how they marketed the Wii in 2006), heck, they failed to even have games that would get people to come out in droves to buy it. Perry Kaplan and several others that were in Nintendo's PR department helped sell the Wii and shoot Nintendo into success they didn't have in years. Their PR has had to switch hands AGAIN and AGAIN because they're not doing their job good enough.
But the bottom line is games. Nintendo didn't have anything other than a half dash attempt at a Pilotwings game (there should have been more than one island), they tried to sell two ports with tweaked graphics, and it still hasn't helped.
Hopefully, Mario 3D Land will help it. But most consumers don't really care much for 3D Mario games. Stack the sales of 2D Mario games and 3D games, and you will know what I'm talking about. Mario Kart 7 will be the game that helps the system. But if neither game helps it through the holiday season, I wouldn't be surprised we hear of it's demise.
Whoa…when did this discussion turn to Homophobia? Thats not what gaming about Brayan, please keep your ignorance to yourself, some of us were 'discussing.'
Unfortunately, good education isn't free…
ahhh- a much better comment section. thanks infendo!
Wait, I cannot fathom it being so striagtfhroward.
I find it funny looking at this after the 3DS has actually become a success. XD I mean, it really picked up, really successful, and ever since all the good games finally started coming out, all of my friends started telling me that they need to get a 3DS and one of them regrets selling his! I especially find it entertaining on some people's thoughts and predictions that the 3DS needs an even lower price, and will be discontinued early. There's so many silly predictions people make (in general) that it's hilarious! I mean, there was a company that actually didn't think the telephone would catch on, and a record company that thought the Beatles' music wasn't "modern enough" and thus wouldn't be a success. I think the 3DS' failure is just another one of those silly predictions for the books. I mean, I don't blame anyone for thinking that way back then, because it was rushed to stores with few noteworthy titles released for a long time, but then hits started coming in like no one's business!