PS3 sales to double, overtake Xbox 360 by 2009 and Wii by 2012
Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 11:35pm by David
First, check out the above graph from this article at CNET.
Then check out the following graph found in the NeoGAF forums.
Which one makes the most sense to you?
[Thanks, ejamer!]
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:46 pm
There’s no way a console can sell that much without the support of the casual market. The PS2 had that market, but I don’t think the PS3 can reach that sector. I believe the Wii has the monopoly on this segment for the current generation.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:49 pm
These remind me of the graphs of universal expansion from cosmology. We know we are expanding at the moment, but whether in ~44 billion years we crunch, or expand forever is still up for debate…because both graphs are probable at this point in time.
Even as stupid as half of these projections are, it seems right to me that the 360 is going to taper off. Without a serious strategy rethink, Microsoft will continue to shoot itself in the foot, and pigeonhole the console in those lofty upstream markets. At least Sony is putting a seemingly dedicated effort in quality titles for the masses. PixelJunk Monsters and Singstar anybody?
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
The first graph looks like a professional version of the second graph.
Wishful thinking, in other words.
Huge increase for PS3.
Huge decrease for Wii.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:51 pm
hahahaha
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Some people just can’t come to terms with the idea that the playstation might not win this generation. If you look closely at the graph, they expect the PS3 to sell 22 million by years end, that means another 10 million by December, which works out to be 1.4 million per month for the rest of the year. Thats already more than double what they’re doing today. When is this huge sails surge supposed to start exactly? I mean, the PS3 sales are actually decreasing on a monthly basis in Japan. Then look at 2009, the PS3 is supposed to go from 22 million to 42 million. What? That’s faster than the Wii is selling now! What is this guy smoking?
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:15 am
haha funny. although there is a lot of cool stuff coming for PS3…like…MGS4!! omg, can’t wait. drool.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:20 am
I don’t know about you guys but I think by 2012 we will probably be in a new generation of consoles. I mean that’s 4 years from now and previously things have been on the 5 year cycle. This generation may stick around for longer but I really think we will be seeing some new consoles by then.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:28 am
OMG…..this is hilarious!!!
Now we have even more stupid people in CNET!!!
What has our education loss done to everyone???
Just…pathetic…maybe someone should have studied statistics???
Oh, yeah, and the video game industry as well.
CNET, I’m ashamed I even know you exist.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:37 am
Hahahahaha!
Great post, David.
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:07 am
they are not smoking anything, but if they did, they should have already given up.
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:22 am
that graph’s from IDC- unless theyre related to cnet (i dunno, are they?), some snarkiness here seems misplaced.
May 23rd, 2008 at 2:07 am
Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyeah…..
I don’t think so.
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:10 am
Hahaha, such petty wishful thinking……I think it’s a little too late for Ps3 to making numbers like that.
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:01 am
I’ve actually done these kind of graphs (totally diff field, but similar) and the issue is they are using a stat that is blantantly inaccurate and based on sales increases over a set period.
With the Blu-Ray win in the HD market, PS3 sales have gone up – given. But, the growth rate and degradation of the growth/sales rate over the next years shouldn’t be based solely on this and I think that’s what happened.
The Wii, because of it’s steller growth, has a curve that’s prob. more accurate but I think that a ‘cap’ on the market size wasn’t used as a factor in the growth rate. Your going to hit a point where people just aren’t going to buy anymore – at least not at a 50% growth rate.
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
@ dlindema
So far as I heard, since about 1997 and the mapping of the rate of the universe’s expansion by looking at supernovae, they’re pretty sure there won’t be a big crunch since the rate of expansion of the universe is actually accelerating, like some kind of anti-gravity at large scale phenomenon nobody yet has a good explaination for but we now account for using Einstein’s kinda’ funny Cosmological Constant. It seems the universe is not only expanding quickly, but that that speed is actually increasing. Of course it could be the rate of the rate of the rate of expansion is decreasing, leading eventually to a crunch, but it’s pretty unlikely.
Quite a lot like Nintendo at this point really. Retard Analysts are predicted Wii sales have peaked and will soon drop off, wheras smarter analysts know that they’re still supply constrained and that demand is actually significantly greater than we’ve yet observed. Furthermore, no historical generation has yet shown that a technologically inferior console leading in sales will suddenly drop off in the middle of the cycle because the audience is done with it. I cite the NES, the Playstation, the Playstation 2, the Gameboy and to some extent both the Genesis and SNES.
Nor has any technologically advanced system suddenly significantly improved in sales at any point in it’s life after launch. For this I cite the Master System, the Game Gear, the Gamecube, the Xbox and to some extent both the Genesis and SNES.
Here’s the Kicker:
Sony’s OWN EXPECTATIONS currently only have them as selling 10 million units in the next year, which would actually still leave them behind Wii even if Nintendo cancelled the Wii today.
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:22 am
Yup, total BS. I don’t trust CNET after the whole Kayne & Lynch review and firing of that one guy for giving a bad review to a sponsor.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:08 am
Seriously, everyone, I’ve come from the future in my time machine to tell you all that this graph is completely accurate! Also, the Detroit Red Wings will win the world series next year.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:30 am
@ Cephas I like your humor, man. That Redwings thing had me laughing pretty hard.
The graph is absurd and Malstrom even talked about it on his site. Quite amusing stuf really.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:38 am
Two years from now 3rd party support for the Wii will be in full swing, I don’t see that accounted for in this discussion.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:45 am
That was one crappy article. It mixed US stats and worldwide stats and didn’t really bother to differentiate.
And it appears that the guy is either in love with Sony or paid by them.
From the comments on the article: “Whoever wrote this must be the statistician for Hilary’s campaign.”
Too funny.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
The one at NEO-GAF by a mile…..This is just sad. You can smell the fanboy stink all the way across the world dozens of times over. Not worth fisking.
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Pleeeeeeease? Can I punch someone at CNET? Pretty please?
May 23rd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Very nice David, really enjoyed that 2nd graph which explains things a lot BETTER.
May 23rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
that’s awsome. very nice.
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Man this is like playing poker and knowing they are bluffing.
SONY is banking on the tech cost shrink. They must have a clause with Nvidia to shrink the chips and reduce cost. By that time the PS3 will cost them as much or less than a WII yet they may only do a $100 price drop. Hell the price has already dropped for the production of the PS3 yet only japan was past on these saving and even they are not buying the thing.
I think this talk is for investors because the gamers seem to have already bought the system they want. If you notice the PS3 only out does the xbox 360 at an avg of 10-20k which is not my idea of building steam for a take over. This console along with the other one are curse with console economics here. Any thing over 250 by a gross margin is automatically ignored.
Then the price is forcing developer to think like PC developers and 2d is out of the question here. The only PC market that is going to fail is the HD model being used for consoles. I think the xbox 360 numbers will be matched the PS3 and this is about it. Notice how to buy rates are almost the same GTA4 is a great example. The PS3 is only edging the xbox 360 out because of strong UK and US buying. Yet there are a load of developers that will not be jumping on board the HD train.
The two HD console will keep each other below nintendo the same way the GC and xbox did last gen. Even worst their games will be ported to the PC and the other console even more freely.
The HD market simply will not support enough of variety in game types are gamers due to the high risks involved. The whole HD market seems to be a trap for the small guys in the industry and even a idea to get nintendo to bet the farm. Had they went HD they would have sold less than the PS3 due to price and it would then take nintendo half a year to make games once again. Imagine a wii fit buyer paying $400 then $80 for a the game. Sure the hardcore would have done it because some seem to be addicted to having this stuff…LOL. Every one knows you do not ignore the middle man. Pandering to the shallow minded high demand customers is a loosing effort. Over all quality and fairness for what is received is the best way to go. This is not the case in America right now is it? It’s a money grab situation right now it seems.
I guess we will see what happens , maybe the PS3 will go down to $200 dollar first! and blur ray movie will go for $20-10! If those thing did happen lots of people would buy it but it would still need games for every one. I mean system sellers not fan boy pleaser.
May 24th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
PS3 might just beat XBox in the long run, they’ve got a solid race going. What people don’t ever take into account is the target audience. Wii isn’t a true next-gen system by gamer standards. It’s a Family Entertainment System… a Famicom so to speak. Sure we’re all semi-hardcore gamers but like it or not, MOST of Nintendo’s gamers are in the 10 year old range and ask any one of them and they’ll tell you exactly which pee-soundalike system they want most. And turn around and ask their parents whether they’d prefer a system where the top game is a russian guy that kills hookers and a space marine game, a system with weird stealth assasin games, or a system with fitness training, get off the couch sports, and “cartoon mischeif” games? I think Nintendo found a nerve with families that the gaming industry just isn’t following the way they should. That’s gonna keep Wii ahead of the pack no matter what amazing technical feats (and admittedly worthwhile games) come out for the other systems.
May 25th, 2008 at 11:38 am
I think someone’s on drugs. It looks like Sony is starting to die. They lack creative spirit, and all they want is MONEY!!! Note that the Wii has the best sales because it is the most innovative system. Also Sony over-prices everything. I think the Wii is the only system that charges $50 for games. Games for other systems are typically $60 to $70. That is way too much for me. Sony is greedy, and their sales show it.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
“Wii isn’t a true next-gen system by gamer standards.”
Pish Posh. I’m a gamer and I have to say, you don’t speak for me. I consider the Wii the be the MOST next-gen console. I mean, the other 2 are more or less just graphical upgrades of last gen machines. The Wii enables completely new genres. To ME, THAT is what next-gen should be about, not just a shiny coat of paint over the same shooters we played last gen.
“like it or not, MOST of Nintendo’s gamers are in the 10 year old range”
What are you smoking? I’d like some. Nintendo has the oldest average demographic of the 3. You really think it’s 10 year olds buying Wii-Fit and Brain age? Please.