“The biggest threats to Nintendo’s success” isn’t even trying
Monday, May 11th, 2009 at 2:32pm by Boss Hog
An IGN editorial made the Digg homepage over the weekend and subsequently has been making the online rounds. The piece examines “the biggest threats to Nintendo’s success in 2009,” but I couldn’t help but feel underwhelmed after skimming it. It’s a great topic, but IGN’s reasonings seem irrelevant. Here’s why:
- PS3 outsold Wii in Japan last month for the first time. The author calls this “a big deal.” It’s a key moment to watch, for sure, but it won’t be “a big deal” unless it’s the beginning of a trend in consecutive months across multiple territories. Otherwise it’s just a blip on the radar, no? And if I’m not mistaken, the GameCube managed to outsell the PS2 on occasion in Japan, but that didn’t help in the long run.
- Yearly video game sales are down 17%. This isn’t a threat to Nintendo’s success, it’s a threat to Nintendo’s revenues. Dominance is still dominance, no matter the size of a market.
- A lack of traditional games. Even though I don’t, I can understand how some long-time gamers have felt alienated by Wii; Nintendo has obviously put a lot more time and effort into games like Wii Fit than on Zelda. But Wii became the fastest selling console ever thanks to mainstream audiences which prefer Wii Fit and Mario Kart to Zelda, so I’m not sure how this issue will “threaten” Nintendo’s success. Disgruntle long-time Zelda fans, yes. But I fail to see how it will eat into Nintendo profitability.
- Shovelware discourages hardware sales. This statement is short sighted. Shovelware in the presence of very few quality games discourages hardware sales, not the existence of shovelware alone (see: Atari 2600). The Wii has an abnormally high number of cheap games, but when good games can still be found (which they can), bad games can’t hurt you unless you buy them. As sales numbers show, mainstream gamers are buying a lot more Mario Kart than Dance Kitty Dance: Sports Style 2009, so this is a moot point since most consumers aren’t feeling the sting of shovelware.
- After last month’s launch of the DSi, the Wii has become yesterday’s news. Were this Wii 2 versus Wii I could understand. But comparing handhelds to consoles seems like apples and oranges. Just grasping here really.
- Nintendo’s E3 2009 showing is unclear. Assuming the worst, how will a poor E3 showing threaten Nintendo’s success in 2009? Nintendo sucked up the show last year, with Wii Music as its headliner, and that didn’t stop Nintendo’s continued dominance in 2008. There simply is no correlation here.
Am I wrong?
May 11th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Good points.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
You’re correct and you forgot point 7: The IGN staff is much worse at making effective commentaries on Nintendo-based stories today as compared to 10 years ago, when they had knowledgeable people.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
I’m not trashing the IGN article, but you have to consider what their target market is. (Hint: not casual gamers, which make up the majority of Wii’s owner base.)
There are very few websites that offer good Nintendo news and previews, because Nintendo doesn’t drive good numbers for “core” websites the same way that PS3/360 articles do. I would assume that having IGN’s Wii staff split time for the iPhone page is a direct result from this fact… although that is really just speculation.
People have been predicting that Wii will fail since it was first released. While the so-called “fad” might wear off one of these years, I’m not concerned until the system stops offering games that I want to play.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Yeah, the IGN article was titled to attract readers, with no real reporting behind it.
And on an extended comment on #3: I’m not sure what they mean by “traditional” games, but no one is really making money on good “hardcore” games these days. Look at the sales of GTA Chinatown Wars, Boomblox, Zack & Wiki, etc…. Hardcore or “traditional” gamers whine, whine and whine some more about not being catered on Nintendo platforms, but when they finally are and a developer releases an extraordinary good game on these consoles, these gamers go hide in their caves.
May 11th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
“these gamers go hide in their caves”
I have a theory that gamers who prefer traditional and/or hardcore titles are much more likely to pirate said games… but only circumstantial evidence to back it up. However, sales numbers for any serious games on Wii do suggest that all those “my Wii is dusty haha” anti-Nintendo fanboys are talking through their asses.
May 11th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
And because I’m board and posting too much… There is one point above that I (mostly) disagree with.
“Shovelware discourages hardware sales.” The Infendo argument against this claim above only true for people who know how to pick out diamonds from the shovelware.
Casual gamers who can’t tell which Wii games are “good” – an arbitrary term anyway – might assume that all games are like Ninjabreadman (or whatever other cheap shovelware they end up playing). With a reputation like that, it wouldn’t take long for Wii sales to slow.
Of course, Nintendo might have avoided this problem by providing a solid pack-in game that highlights their advantage over competitors. Wii Sports ensures there is at least one good example of what Wii games should be, and helps to counter any damaging effect from shovelware.
May 11th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
“Look at the sales of GTA Chinatown Wars, Boomblox, Zack & Wiki, etc…. Hardcore or “traditional” gamers whine, whine and whine some more about not being catered on Nintendo platforms, but when they finally are and a developer releases an extraordinary good game on these consoles, these gamers go hide in their caves.”
Boom Blox was a bad game, quite frankly. Interesting concept, and there’s a fun game lurking in there somewhere, but it wasn’t executed properly. It deserved to fail. Zack & Wiki is a niche title, honestly. Great game, but not something with mass appeal, and not a title that caters to “traditional gamers”. GTA on a handheld is a flawed concept, in my mind. I don’t really care for GTA, so I may be off on this one, but I don’t think the millions of people that plunked down their hard earned cash for GTA 3 and 4 on the PS and XBox platforms wanted that same experience in a to go package. I played the 2 original GTAs, which more closely resemble Chinatown Wars, and they weren’t great games. I think there’s some validity to your point, but you chose poor examples.
May 11th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
All great points. It’s hilarious how it sounds like the complaints of a frightened hardcore gamer rather than legitimate business reason Nintendo may falter. IGN stinks.
May 11th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
“After last month’s launch of the DSi, the Wii has become yesterday’s news.”
As a matter of fact the launch of the DSi may even boost sales of the Wii. There are some Wii and DS games that allow the two consoles to connect to each other for various reasons (like in pokemon). Also the Wii allows owners of a DS to play demos that are streamed from the Wii to the DS. Eventually there are going to be games released that will only work on the DSi, and if these games have a feature to connect to the Wii version of the game then this could also boost Wii sales.
May 11th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Boom Blox sold well – it’s almost up to 1 million copies.
May 11th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
i’m not a big fan of most of the nintendo ign commentaries. and in think infendo makes some good points with this article. with nintendo consoles, you always want more great games the the big N gives. but i’d say that the wii is on track to give more great games then the gamecube. and i loved the cube.
so, i don’t think nintendo is cooking the goose. i think they’re just doing what they’ve been doing for a while now. and some have just forgotten.
May 11th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
IGN gave Galactrix 8.5 I don’t trust the site anymore.
May 11th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
*applauds loudly with fellow Nintendonites*
May 11th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
I think the biggest threat to Nintendo’s success isn’t that their lack of fan service, but rather that they may have lost the plot with regards to the “blue ocean” games that have allowed them to own this generation. Last fall we had Wii Music turn out to be an epic fail, and this summer, we have Wii Sports Resort coming out.
Wii Music failed because even though most people have played an instrument at one time or another, recreating that feeling with the Wiimote was oversimplified and it just didn’t sound that great with the limited selection of songs they provided. Between its announcement and its release, Guitar Hero went from a newcomer to the one to beat.
Now, I only know 3 of the sports featured in the Wii Sports Resort, but so far it’s not looking remotely like the revolution Wii Sports was. I would go so far as to say that every last American either plays, has played or watches one of the five sports in Wii Sports. This made Wii Sports kind of a holy grail in that it provided a realistic-feeling simulacrum of sports almost everyone has played. In Wii Sports Resort, so far, we have…. well, fencing, throwing frisbees for dogs, and jet skiing. It may sell in numbers close to Wii Play just for the peripheral (if Nintendo can get people to think of it as a useful expansion), but I don’t think it’s going to sell any systems to nursing homes, for example.
Maybe the sports that haven’t been announced will have more appeal to non-gamers, but I really think the Wii Sports’ success stems from its ability to turn the sports people already like into an indoor activity that creates a party atmosphere. Everything else has just been gravy. To keep up the momentum they have now, Nintendo needs to find a way to get more games of substance onto their system, and by “games of substance” I mean games along the lines of Wii Sports and Mario Kart (and I don’t even like the Wii’s take on Mario Kart.)
I also think I’m ready for Miyamoto to go back to making games like Pikmin, Chibi-Robo, Mario and Zelda, but that’s just the fanboy in me talking.
May 11th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
I don’t know what to say after that? It’s almost like IGN is mad that nintendo isn’t giving them any thing to hype for E3. You know some thing a fan boy would love to drum up.
The DSi is killing Wii sales, really? Shovel ware effects every one even when it’s rated a ten. Yes that comment was for the HD gamers and their flops at making traditional games.
This gen the gaming media has been so bad it’s not even funny. Some times I wonder is it the blogs that accelerated this or is it the fact that the big media guys are just that out of touch with what truely is good in the eyes of the hardcore.
The funny notion that all hardcore gamers are voicing their opinions online is a really bad assumption. It’s very similar to how republicans voice their opinion very loudly during the election just to watch the very people they said they represent stay at home and not vote. The internet is much like this. 10s and perfects for games yet they can not hope to reach mario kart sales. Then there is the gospel that all gamers on those HD systems are hardcore yet few games have sold 10 million copies.
The HD hardcore is dieing and it’s their own fault. They wanted to grown up when this hobby must bring in new comers since the older you get the more likely you will need an excuse to play your favorite games.
May 11th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Switch out Nintendo’s “success” for Nintendo’s “consumer loyalty” or Nintendo’s “core gamers” and you make a case.
It’s hard to wanna stick with the big N when shovel ware sells more than MadWorld and they refuse to institute quality control.
I agree with most of what you said, but the fact is: Nintendo hasn’t released a big hitter since Mario Kart Wii. And let’s face it. The core audience is still a very big pillar for Nintendo. It was the core that made Smash Bros Brawl Nintendo’s number 1 fastest selling game (leaving the competition (Halo 3, MGS4) in the dust).
Now, do I think that Nintendo is gonna fail it’s core audience? Obviously not. They realize that it’s the core who bring the money at the end of the day. It’s the core who keep the attach rates up. It’s the core who keep buying games after Wii Sports.
But not releasing a solid title for over a year? Ninty, that just ain’t right. Next week, Punch-Out will change things, but I expect BIG BIG things from Nintendo at E3.
BIG.
The PS3 is catching up in Japan, so the 360 will probably catch up here. I expect Nintendo to use some of it’s money to start eating into Sony and Microsoft’s market (already has with most of the RPG genre).
May 11th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Let me make one last statement, though. I don’t care how well games do financially. I just want more good games. I don’t care if Nintendo is successful (apparently the GCN wasn’t) I just want more good games.
which Nintendo has sorta failed to do…
Since Brawl…
May 11th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
“Shovelware discourages hardware sales” certainly not true – see also PS2. There was an enormous amount of shovelware for that platform and I believe it still moved more hardware than any console in its generation.
May 11th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Good points, Blake. It’s refreshing to see a post that’s based in fact and legitimate analysis, as opposed to page view whoring and skewed opinion about what games “ought to be.”
Also, WIi Music sold 2.65 million copies to date. Even Nintendo’s “failures” are still able to outsell critically acclaimed titles like Dead Space (a game I enjoyed immensely, btw).
Also refreshing is the fact that the Wii’s arc is literally mimicking the DS to the T. And again, it’s amazing that people, both in the forums and the journalist circles, continually insist on not seeing it. I see MotionPlus as the Wii’s Nintendogs. Everyone remembers what happened to the DS after that title dropped, yes?
May 11th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
I agree with this side more than the IGN’s side for sure, but when gamers like the ones who read this site don’t buy HOD: Overkill, MadWorld and I’m sure Klonoa will fail this month, there is reason to worry that Nintendo has slapped the face of core gamers one time too many.
May 11th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
Sony and Microsoft are not focused on growth so how is Nintendo’s success going to stop when Nintendo is the only one that is focusing on growth. The Playstation and Playstation 2 were the sales leaders in their respective generations because they focused on growth. The NES focused on growth. The Atari 2600 focused on growth. With all the talk about nobody buying the “hardcore” games on the Wii, how come nobody is talking about nobody buying the “hardcore” consoles? I know this is never going to happen but why not find out why people are buying the Wii instead of making fallacies or stereotypes. Find out why people enjoy the Wii or what attracted them to buy the Wii. Instead we get articles about the upcoming Armageddon of the Wii or the same old tired excuses. Nobody does any real analysis or journalism when it comes to the Wii. Instead we get articles with message board quotes and message board etiquette.
May 12th, 2009 at 12:30 am
The people at IGN are just as knowledgeable about Nintendo games as the people at G4TV – they don’t know anything.
They are way too anti-Nintendo, will take potshots whenever, and never do any real work or analysis on what a good Nintendo game is.
They aren’t like us – who do studies on what upcoming games will be released, see what will make them good games, and (for those of us who have money) purchase and play them.
There probably isn’t one person besides me who owns 70+ good games for the Wii. And 70+ good games for the DS/DSi.
There isn’t any really good media to cover Nintendo anymore.
Except for Infendo.com and Nintendo Power.
Great job Infendo!
May 12th, 2009 at 1:38 am
@ Joltman:
*applause from me and fellow Nintendonites*
Unfortunately, sources that you described are overlooked because many believe them to be biased pro-Nintendo because that’s all they cover, although NP has many employees who possess a 360.
May 12th, 2009 at 1:50 am
Nintendo’s E3 2009 showing is unclear. — Nintendo’s E3 section last year was… well…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XR7LaJLLf8
May 12th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Regarding “A lack of traditional games” …
I think that the Wii has actually brought back what I consider “traditional games”. Playing simple WiiWare titles like Orbient or Strong Bad or Wild West Gun really made me feel like I was back in the day playing games on the Atari 2600, or C=64, or even NES respectively. If those aren’t traditional-style games, I don’t know what are!
May 12th, 2009 at 9:47 am
@Joltman:
Wow! 70+ games, for real?
There probably aren’t that many Wii games that interest me personally… but there probably aren’t that many games across all three systems combined that interest me enough to buy.
How do you find time to play them all? I have more games than I could possibly enjoy, and only own about twenty.
May 12th, 2009 at 11:55 am
@skeptical:
I get my chances to play my games in-between work, and on the weekends.
A lot of people are amazed by my large collection of games – on the side, one of my goals is to get the message out to a lot of new players that there are games that will interest them.
Occassionally, I will go to the local GameCrazy (not GameStop – they do not possess a great intelligence), and take a look at the upcoming games for the Wii and DS. If there are customers there looking for a game for their Wii/DS (or if they are eyeing purchasing one), I lend my advice and ask them what type of game interests them.
More than likely, I will have played a game of their interest, and will pass my thoughts on to them, and it usually inspires them to purchase that title. As an additional bonus, if I know about some upcoming titles in their preferred genre, I will also tip them about that and inspire them to pre-order that game as well!
And there have been times when I have purchased a game that was not really good – and promptly returned it, which in turn helped me pass that suggestion on to people (see Lux-Pain – I returned it 20 minutes after purchasing it).
May 14th, 2009 at 12:35 am
Jack, Wii Music did sell over 2 million copies, but I think in doing so they may have harmed the value of their brand. It’s like a wildly successful band releasing a wretched album. It dips a bit in sales but still goes platinum, but sometimes the next album — even if it’s a lot better — never reaches the level of sales their albums had before their detour into dreck. The momentum’s gone.
Also, I would argue that the Wii’s Nintendogs was Wii Sports. Unlike Nintendogs it shipped with its system, and that’s how the Wii overtook the 360 so quickly. Despite all the “it’s a fad” grumbling, there was never an “uh-oh, is this going to fail” period like there was for the first 6-8 months of 2005 for the DS; there was a dry spell for games, but that just meant that all the people clamoring to buy more Wiis than were being produced were happy just to play Wii Sports and maybe Wii Play once in a blue moon.
May 14th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Regarding #2: Did anyone bother to read this point? Here’s the major problem: IGN didn’t even bother to state what year the $1.72 billion number was. So I assume it’s 2007. If so; then most of the sales loss was not due to Nintendo DS and Wii in neither hardware nor software; but in PS3 and PS2 hardware and software (which did decline rather sharply). Even PSP and XBOX 360 saw small gains; but those were wiped out by huge drops in PS2 and PS3 software sales. So Nintendo had NOTHING to do with the sales drop AT all.
What an idiot Patrick Kolan is to make such an obvious mistake like that.
Otherwise; this is clearly another “Wii Bubble is About To Burst” rant; only they tried to cover it up with a cliche about golden gooses. How utterly unoriginal.