Nintendo, with Wii, to dominate 50% of market in 2008
Wednesday, June 6th, 2007 at 9:20am by Jack
Oh, how the tables have turned, no? It seems just yesterday that Nintendo was considered a toy for children; an afterthought of he market; a pale shadow of its former self in the 1980’s and 90’s. But not today, it would seem, as investors get whipped up into a tizzy of big words and numbers when they talk about Nintendo and its plucky white console (and handheld).
Analyst Anthony Arena (say that five times fast):
We believe the launch of high quality third party games, combined with blockbuster first party games, will allow the Nintendo Wii to command 50% of the console market.
We believe a 50% market share of the console market combined with the best selling handheld to date will allow Nintendo to generate fiscal 2008 revenue of $10 billion. Therefore, we are initiating an outperform rating and a per share price of the ADR shares of $50.
Billion, as in with a B. Arena argues that Nintendo is still under performing because the third party players have only just come around on the Wii. This thing is a juggernaut.
June 6th, 2007 at 9:58 am
“…the launch of high quality third party games…”
This has yet to happen and is the variable Nintendo is unable to control. Nintendo will succeed no matter how much the 3rd parties kick and scream, but if developers continue to treat Wii as they have been ’till now (and continue to treat DS) then Wii’s success will be less assured and certainly less commanding and standardising than it could have been. It’s unfortunate because it only hurts 3rd parties and consumers.
June 6th, 2007 at 10:35 am
I don’t trust analysts! I want to hear predictions from developers! And I don’t mean the PR department from a developer firm, but the actual hands-on programmers that make the games! Those are the ones that really make or break a system by bringing the goods, and if they are not happy working on the system… well, then nobody’s happy!!
Oh, and elmer: there are plenty of good and original games on DS! The bad ones outnumber them, of course, but that’s why we read the reviews!
June 6th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
I don’t know how the Wii can be under performing when new shipments sell out immediately. Amazingly it’s doing this without a stellar game line-up. Imagine what will happen when games like Metroid, SSBB, Umbrella Chronicles and Boogie hit the shelves later this year. Madness.
June 6th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Invisible man:
Few are from 3rd parties, and NONE are from Western 3rd parties, as I was saying on the “top 10 DS games” article.
I trust analyst when unusual things aren’t happening. Analysts are good at looking at trends and extrapolating (not that it’s difficult). They’re not good at predicting the effects of innovation, or quantifying shifts while they happen. I’ve grown more and more wary of developers’ ability to prognosticate, having watched every last one get it wrong on DS, and then everyone but Ubisoft get it wrong again IN THE EXACT SAME WAY on Wii.
Essentially I’ve learned that 3rd party developer support doesn’t always matter (though it can’t hurt), as evidenced by Xbox’s failure, Xbox 360’s stagnation, DS’s success, Wii’s success, PSP’s stagnation, Saturn’s failure relative to N64’s ’success’, and PC’s ever waning audience. As for weather or not they’re happy, well, developers hated PS2 but still made games for it and sold, loved Xbox and made games for it that bombed, and have been in love with PC since forever.
June 6th, 2007 at 11:20 pm
If they can finally get some good 3rd party support the Wii will break out of the ‘novelty’ stereotype.
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http://www.howtogetfreewiipoints.com
June 7th, 2007 at 2:59 am
elmer, your my favorite poster in a long while. i want to second all that you have said.
developers develop where they are allowed to, not where they want to, or where they think the most audience will be, but they are just like analysts, unable to clearly see the future. besides, they havent said a single bad thing about developing on the wii except that learning the new controller takes time.
ps3 development is difficult, xbox360 is easy to develop for.
June 7th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
waltermh
Thanks for the sentiments